Major goal of the poll was to look at and to analyse electoral behavior of the local population in the course of the most recent parliamentary and presidential elections in Russia. Another goal of the research was to explore expectations of the residents of Makhachkala related to possible developments in security and economic situation in both Dagestan and the Russian Federation. In total, 200 residents of Makhachkala of different age groups, sex and professions have been polled.
Respondents’ reaction to a question “Did you take part in State Duma elections in December 2007 and if yes, which party did you vote for?” showed quite widespread political apathy and disinterest of the population in the election process. Thus, around 49% of those polled indicated that they did not participate in the elections. It should be noticed that the level of political apathy in the capital of Dagestan proved to be much higher than in the capital of Kabardino-Balkaria. In Makhachkala number of those who ignored Duma elections reached 49% while 39% in Nalchik reported that they did not participate in the elections.
Rather predictably, “United Russia” proved to be the most popular party in Dagestan (35% or respondents claimed they voted for that party). KPRF with 11% was the second most popular party in Makhachkala. Residents of Makhachkala also voted for “Just Russia” (4%) and LDPR (1%). However, poll results indicate that all leading Russian political parties lost elections to their main opponent represented by political apathy and public disinterest in the voting. In their oral comments, respondents said they were tired and bored of long and obtrusive election campaign and expressed scepticism about all promises made by politicians in the course of the elections.
Residents of Makhachkala displayed similar attitudes towards presidential elections in Russia. Respondents’ reaction to a question “Did you participate in the presidential elections in March 2008 and if yes, whom did you vote for?” showed that abstinence from voting turned to be indisputable winner of the presidential elections among the residents of Makhachkala. Thus, 58% of the respondents indicated they did not vote while 35% voted for D. Medvedev. KPRF leader G. Zyuganov (5%) and Bogdanov (1%) received significantly less number of votes than Medvedev. It should be noted that the level of political apathy in Makhachkala in the course of the presidential elections was significantly higher than during Duma elections when 49% of the responents did not vote. Many respondents referred to presidential elections in Russia as badly staged and rather predictable show with obvious result and without real competition between presidential candidates. Interestingly, many Medvedev’s supporters were critical about what they perceived as excessive use of administrative resources by the local authorities to support and promote Medvedev’s candidacy.
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In their responses to a question about possible changes in security sphere in Dagestan, residents of Makhachkala demonstrated pessimism and lack of hope in any positive changes in the near future. Only 7% of those polled believe that situation in security sphere is going to improve. 4% think it would “rather improve” while 8% expect deterioration in that field and 19% think that security situation would “rather deteriorate”.
At the same time, the highest number of respondents (47%) don’t expect any changes in security situation in their republic. It is worth of noting that while in Kabardino-Balkaria overall number of those who expect positive changes in security sphere in their republic (33%) is much higher than the number of pessimists (19%), situation in Dagestan looks different since pessimists significantly outnumber optimists (11% of optimists and 27% of pessimists).
Respondents were somewhat more optimistic while answering question on possible changes in social and economic situation in Dagestan. 5% expect improvements in social and economic situation in their republic; 13% think that the situation would “rather improve” while 4% expect deterioration of social and economic conditions and 10% think that conditions would “rather deteriorate”. Overwhelming majority of the respondents (56%) believe that there will be no changes in that sphere. 12% reported difficulties in answering this question. In their oral comments, respondents emphasized ongoing social differentiation among the population of Dagestan and expressed their disontent with occasional energy shortages in their republic in the last several months.
Responding to a question about possible changes in security sphere in Russia, 15% indicated that situation is going to improve and 11% - “rather improve”. At the same time, 10% think that the situation will deteriorate and 12% - “rather deteriorate”. 38% don’t expect any changes in that sphere. 14% found it difficult to answer that question.
It is interesting that respondents’ expectations about possible changes in social and economic situation in Russia were less optimistic. Only 10% think that situation in this sphere is going to improve and 7% - “rather improve” while 12% expect deterioration of the situation and 20% believe that situation would “rather deteriorate”. 26% are sure that situation is not going to change. Quite high number of those polled (25%) found it hard to answer that question.
In general, residents of Makhachkala in their assessments of possible changes in security and economic situation both in their own republic and in generally in Russia proved to be much more pessimistic than the residents of Nalchik. Thus, only 10% of Makhachkala residents expect improvements in economic situation in Russia while in Nalchik number of those who expect positive scenario in this area was significantly higher (27%).